The NileView

I am not an economist, but here is some food for thought on the way forward for Egypt.

As we start the last quarter of 2022, the global economy continues to be challenged by multiple disruptions. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated implications, which seemed to have been somehow subsiding in the latter part of 2021, came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early in 2022 and its related repercussions, including further derailing of different global value and supply chains. Such development had strategically caused a worldwide loss of economic momentum. In addition, it led food and energy prices to dramatically increase, resulting in inflation skyrocketing and becoming broad-based in many economies––especially for large food importers like Egypt, with annual wheat imports amounting to around 13 million tons, mainly from Russia and Ukraine, and generally causing more societal challenges at a time when the cost of living was already steadily on the rise in both the developed world and developing economies.

Global economic growth has stalled since the second quarter of 2022. Accordingly, projections show that, most likely, many countries will experience slow growth, extending well into the fiscal year 2023/2024. The implications of these global developments are affecting many countries around the world. For Egypt, early this year, the country was on the verge of what looked like a gradual post-pandemic economic recovery––building on the economic growth of 3.3 percent in the fiscal year 2020/2021, which was higher than many other countries. However, with the developments in Eastern Europe, it turned out that the implications are more severe on the economy, requiring a comprehensive approach that encompasses simultaneous actions to be taken by both the government and the central bank, such as embarking on an expedited and comprehensive structural reform program, revisiting the fiscal and monetary policies, including moving away from fixing the exchange rate and surely from relying on the carry trade, in other words, hot money, coupled with reaching out to International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and different global and regional investment channels for significant support.

The negotiations of the government of Egypt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are progressing, with the final agreement expected soon pending––I suspect––concrete actions, including an accelerated structural reform strategy and an implementation plan that can see the government taking the corrective measures to gradually exit from the economy and adopting a more inclusive approach vis a vis the private sector. Some of these actions are already underway but the sooner the agreement with the IMF is reached, the better so that the process of moving away from the current economic crisis starts, which will signal the beginning of the recovery journey.

It is worth noting that the decisions that were taken by the government a few years ago regarding phasing out subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities for households and business users while expanding the social protection programs demonstrate that the government does not shy away from taking tough decisions and mitigate the consequences through various projects and activities. Today, it is widely acknowledged by different stakeholders, including the government, that it is time for another round of policies and actions that primarily address the role of the government in the economy and improving the business climate with an eye on creating jobs and boosting exports, among other strategic objectives.

For Egypt, I firmly believe that regardless of the severity of the challenges that the economy faces, timely decisions are always of the essence, and no challenge cannot be approached and rectified. I believe that the much-anticipated structural reform program that the government plans should also be driven by maximizing efficiency and effectiveness, taking clear and bold actions to reduce bureaucracy and red tape, and combating corruption where digitalization can play a significant role––something that the government is working on, and the rollout of several digital services is already underway. Furthermore, transforming the economy’s fortunes often boils down to how to manage its resources. On this note, several questions come to mind: How do we promote smoother collaboration between government offices? It is important to emphasize that in all environments, silos exist, but what needs to be done is to think creatively to contain them and minimize their negative impact? How to encourage better and more effective coordination between government organizations and offices where the mindset is overwhelmingly driven by thinking vertically and turf protection and overrules a more horizontal approach to decision-making where teamwork and alignment prevail? In my mind, one of the most critical questions whose answer could help realize a transformational change is––does Egypt really need 32 ministries? In my humble opinion, such an organizational structure is too complex and should be revisited. It often leads to conflicts and, as a result, helps create a problem for every solution, not the other way around.

Egypt’s financial crisis––probably one of its worst ever––remains a significant deterrent impeding the economy. Everyone acknowledges that, and different key stakeholders––including the government––are seriously deliberating on how to approach such a position with transformative, well-informed, data-driven decisions and proceed with a healthy recovery process. Therefore, the government’s plan to revisit the public sector is both encouraging and ambitious. The acceleration in the divestiture of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) could be a game changer and could go a long way in bringing the economy back on track by helping bridge the financial gap, reducing the government investment in the economy, and consequently reducing its debt and, rightly so, offering more investment opportunities to the private sector both locally and internationally while striking the right balance that best serves the interest of the economy––all can help in reducing the country’s external debt.

On a different note, the outlook for business activity remains blurry. The S&P Global Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)––reflecting the non-oil private sector economy––contracted to 47.6 in September 2022. Furthermore, some indications show a further drop in business activities due to declining demand across the board in services, manufacturing, construction, and retailing because of rising inflation––which is expected to increase further with the much-anticipated and imminent devaluation of the Egyptian Pound––coupled with the lack of raw material supply, spare part as well as other intermediate goods due to the private sector’s inability to import their needs given the unavailability of foreign currency. This position was exacerbated by the imposed import regulations early in 2022––among other reasons­­––that affected both manufacturers and retailers. It is worth noting that some of these restrictions were recently eased in September. For the record, Egypt’s balance of trade problems does not only lie in the volume of imports but rather in the below-par volume coupled with the complexity of exports, where more than half of the exports are primary commodities as for the finished goods, they rely on inputs from other countries. The ripple effect of the recent developments mentioned above led in the last few months to a significant decrease in exports––a major setback in achieving the country’s ambitious and strategic target of reaching $100 billion in exports.

The role of the government in managing the economy is invaluable. However, it needs to be clearly defined with its framework and parameters so that the ecosystem is transparent––leaving no room for speculations––and, more importantly, sustainable from the local and international investors’ perspectives. Economies need collective efforts by governments, the private sector, and other societal stakeholders to move forward so everyone is aligned and complements each other.

The private sector should and must be the engine that is empowered to transform the economy, which will not be easy to realize without a conducive business environment that is inviting and act as a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI)––the first order of business should be to remove the chronic obstacles facing investors. For now, the private sector is not playing the sizable role it should be playing in creating enough jobs due to existing market conditions and limitations and the heavy participation of the government in the economy somehow crowding out the private sector––as opposed to playing an invaluable role being the regulator. Therefore, it is promising to know that the government plans to grow the share of the private sector in economic activities from 30 percent to 65 percent over the next three years. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that regional and international investors’ interest in the economy remains solid and high, given Egypt's size and prospects, pending the availability of market dynamics that are based on and reflect a level playing field.

Every challenge requires unconventional and innovative measures to turn it into an opportunity. In the case of Egypt’s economy, I believe that the path to recovery is relatively classical. The directions to be taken include revisiting the role of the government in the economy, prioritizing the spending on mega projects, encouraging private sector investments through an enabling and inviting business environment, adopting a more inclusive economic approach, and capitalizing on Egypt’s most important asset––the human capital––by creating enough cutting-edge employment opportunities away from low value-added economic sectors which can help deliver a more advanced level of productivity growth and consequently positively affect exports.

As the title indicates, I am not an economist. These are just some reflections and food for thought. However, I remain firmly optimistic about Egypt’s potential and prospects. Given the current state of global affairs and the ongoing developments, understanding that economic recovery takes time, relentless efforts, ample resources, resilience, and several transformative policies and actions are essential. Nevertheless, at the same time, it is vital to approach this economic crisis with the mindset that it could very well represent a window of opportunity for the country to autocorrect and pave the way to a healthier and prosperous economy.

On this note, during these challenging times, economies need an opening. Therefore, as Egypt prepares to host the 27thedition of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP27)––also known as the Climate Change Conference, in Sharm El-Sheikh during the period 6-18 November 2022 with representatives from around the world and from all walks of life including but not limited to heads of states, policymakers, business leaders, professionals, entrepreneurs, academics, civil society representatives and more––there is no doubt in my mind that this is a unique chance for the government of Egypt to commit to a well-thought and accelerated structural reform program that can––not just unleash many of the untapped potentials of the private sector and seamlessly and expeditiously open the business environment for investment opportunities––but also embark as per the government plan on a journey that is driven by inclusive and sustainable development and a greener economy.

About the author: Sherif Kamel is a Professor of Management and Dean of the School of Business at The American University in Cairo.

6 October 2022
Issue #25