The NileView
My Views on 2026: A Year of Big Bets and Bold Shifts: Technological Acceleration, Economic Fragmentation, Global Transformation, and Multipolar Geopolitics
As we welcome the new year, the key uncertainties shaping 2026 will be the trajectory of U.S.–China relations, the evolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the stability of the Middle East, and the resilience of the global economy amid slow growth and persistent inflation. The global economy will most likely be defined by two intertwined forces: adapting to accelerating technological change and dealing with rising geopolitical fragmentation. Economic growth is expected to be modest yet positive, hovering around 2.8-3.0%, fueled by continued technological integration and advanced economies settling into lower, more stable rates after inflation spikes. Priority will be placed on price stability, financial resilience, and employment opportunities.
Technology: Accelerating Change
Questions that come to mind: Is artificial intelligence (AI) a bubble? Are valuations too high? Will we see a correction? If so, what would be the implications for markets and growth potential? No matter what the correct valuation of AI turns out to be, the big 7 information technology companies will invest more in AI infrastructure, meaning more chips, more data, and more power. That, in turn, should lead to tangible gains in productivity, innovation, and impact, delivering value to society. So, will 2026 be the year AI moves from a transformative promise to an operational reality?
If that happens, next year we should see AI gradually embedded not only in tech companies but also in traditional industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and education, creating new business models and services. Moreover, agentic AI will affect everyday life, so be ready for a machine partner. 2026 will be the year AI agents begin to reshape the very fabric of our daily routines. Technological transformation will be a primary driver of productivity and structural change. Digital platforms, including AI, will continue reshaping services. Therefore, countries that invest effectively in digital infrastructure, human capital, and data governance will reap disproportionate gains. However, will the benefits be evenly distributed? This will intensify debates over inequality, labor displacement, and competition policy.
Geopolitics: Increasing Fragmentation
2026 will see an increasingly multipolar economic order. The United States, China, and the European Union will remain central poles, while middle powers, including India, Brazil, Indonesia, and other emerging regional middle powers, will wield growing influence. In all cases, the power rivalry—particularly between the United States and China—will remain the central organizing force in global politics.
Geopolitical weight will be amplified by trade, energy, and technology decisions. Trade will be less about efficiency and more about security, and value, with friend-shoring, strategic stockpiling, and green industrial policy shaping energy supply chains. In 2026, the global supply chain is poised for further reconfiguration and diversification, becoming more interconnected, technologically driven, and responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities. By embracing digital transformation, fostering resilience, prioritizing sustainability, and adapting to consumer behavior, businesses can navigate this dynamic landscape effectively. Understanding these trends will be essential for stakeholders aiming to thrive in the rapidly evolving world of complex global supply chain networks, with AI playing a growing, central role in modeling and managing these networks.
Trade: Going Digital
Trade tensions will persist. On the one hand, U.S. tariffs will affect imports and limit the volume of U.S. demand that can lift global trade. On the other hand, China’s manufacturing-led growth and efforts to boost exports will push down global prices and fuel competition, adding pressure on global manufacturers. The digitalization of trade will accelerate. Global exports of digitally delivered services are projected to comfortably exceed $5 trillion, with emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa becoming even more prominent. This growth is not only in volume but also in sophistication—regions will begin to specialize and export complex digital products. To help foster the digitalization of trade, 2026 must be a year of modernizing international trade agreements while affirming the need to resolve disputes and promote greater openness to better accommodate digital goods and services, addressing issues such as data localization, digital taxation, and intellectual property rights in the virtual world.
The United States Turns 250 Years
On July 4, 2026, the United States will celebrate its 250th anniversary—a milestone in the country’s history. Furthermore, the year will witness midterm elections in November, which will signal the country’s future plans. The question is: What will that mean for many of the resulting policies and directions that could have multidimensional global implications for international relations, trade agreements, security alliances, and multilateral frameworks?
Intelligence: Human-Led and Computing-Enabled
People have used smartphones for nearly two decades. Is it now time for smart homes and smart offices? Will AI take center stage? Furthermore, evolving, specialized AI models are expected to enable organizations to leverage AI without the massive data center costs and energy consumption, making the technology more accessible and sustainable. In 2026, the conversation should shift from pure capability to ethics, governance, and the equitable distribution of AI’s benefits. In addition, the role of innovative technologies in wellness will be magnified as more digital devices emerge to address society’s growing interest in physical and mental health. Across age groups, especially among youth, well-being will remain a top spending priority. It will expand from personal health to community health, with spending on experiences that connect people. The question is not whether AI will transform how we work and live, but whether it will create an environment where everyone can engage and benefit.
Climate Action: People and Planet
The question is no longer whether the world will transition to clean energy but how fast. The CleanTech boom will move closer to maturity, with green hydrogen, next-generation nuclear power, and battery storage solutions grabbing headlines alongside solar and wind. The economic debate will hopefully be settled, with sustainability recognized not as a cost center but as a great investment opportunity. The key battleground will be climate finance. The success of 2026 will be measured by the flow of capital from developed to developing nations to fund their green transitions and adaptation efforts. Partnerships and the fusion of public and private investment will be among the most important stories to follow.
Open Working Place: Human-Centric Hybrid Models
The NextGen working environment will be human-led, open-ended, and often hybrid, evolving from a policy framework into organizational culture. In 2026, the focus will be on accelerating the use of advanced technology not only for connectivity but also to foster creativity, social intelligence, leadership, mentorship, and a mindset that operates effectively and efficiently despite time and distance barriers. The focus will not and should not be on automating existing tasks but rather on redesigning business models and talent recruitment and retention–all centered on outcomes rather than outputs and functions.
The gig economy will gradually become more formal, with established frameworks for benefits, protections, and career progression for independent skilled workers. Therefore, reskilling, upskilling, and lifelong learning, including vocational and technical training, will be non-negotiable, as human capital development remains the key driver of growth. Organizations that thrive will treat learning as a core necessity, creating clear pathways for their workforce to grow alongside technological change. Those that prioritize human development will not only retain talent but also outperform competitors in innovation, agility, resilience, and growth.
Sports’ Biggest Stage: It is the year of the FIFA World Cup
In 2026, the world’s largest sports event, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is poised to be a landmark edition, not only for its expanded 48-team format but also for its profound global impact. Economically, the tournament is projected to generate billions in revenue from broadcasting rights, sponsorships, tourism, and infrastructure investments. Many of the 16 host cities will benefit from upgraded stadiums, transportation networks, and hospitality sectors. Today, football is a manifestation of a successful industry. Politically, the World Cup provides a platform for diplomatic and soft-power engagement. This edition will differ significantly from past tournaments because of its scale, technological integration, and sustainability focus. Enhanced fan experiences powered by AI and data analytics will set new standards. The 2026 World Cup is not just a sporting spectacle—it is a catalyst for economic momentum, international collaboration, and transformative change, with lasting implications for host nations and the global community.
MENA: What’s Next?
The socioeconomic and political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2026 is shaped by a complex interplay of reform, resilience, and persistent structural pressures. Several states continue pursuing ambitious economic diversification agendas, with Gulf countries leveraging sovereign wealth to accelerate investments in technology, tourism, renewable energy, and logistics, thereby reducing dependence on oil and gas. These initiatives create new opportunities for youth employment and entrepreneurship, though the region still faces high unemployment and uneven access to skills development. The success of mega-projects will be measured by job creation for nationals and by non-oil GDP growth.
In 2026, North African economies will pursue fiscal reforms and infrastructure modernization, but will remain vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations and climate-related stress. Overall, the MENA region’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.6%, driven by investments in infrastructure, diversification, digital transformation, energy expansion, and consumer demand.
Politically, next year presents a mixed picture of stability and fragility. Some governments will pursue institutional reforms and strategic international partnerships, while others will navigate social pressures stemming from economic inequality, demographic growth, and demands for greater political participation. In 2026, the region’s trajectory is one of cautious transformation—balancing modernization with the enduring complexities of governance, identity, and social change.
Egypt: Is it an Economic Turning Point?
The 2026 economic outlook is a complex mix of cautious optimism, profound challenges, and transformative potential. The nation is at a critical juncture. Its economic trajectory will be shaped by the success and pace of domestic reforms, the stability of the global and regional environment, and Egypt’s ability to improve the business environment and attract foreign investment.
With changing global dynamics, where does Egypt stand, given its ties to the East and West, the global North and South? Geopolitical considerations are now a significant factor in navigating these transformative, uncharted waters. The question that begs itself: How can Egypt better leverage its regional influence? Given Egypt’s role as a strategic partner of the European Union (EU), it is compelling to strengthen its ties with its largest trading partners: the EU and the Gulf countries. Europe has the market, technology, and skills to share; the Gulf has the capital; and Egypt has a workforce. All it takes is a coherent plan to tie everything together–just a thought.
In 2026, Egypt is widely expected to reach an economic turning point, driven by its commitment to (a) an accelerated structural reform program, including continuing to correct macroeconomic imbalances and fiscal consolidation through the rationalization of energy subsidies and the broadening of the tax base, crucial for stabilizing public debt, which remains a significant vulnerability, and implementing an ambitious privatization program; and (b) a transition to a production-driven, export-oriented, investment-led economy. This will require elevating private-sector participation, vital to job creation and improving lives and livelihoods; managing public investments efficiently; focusing on tradable, high-productivity sectors; easing inflation; enhancing competitiveness to support growth across all governorates; further addressing the informal economy; and attracting foreign investment, which helps bolster foreign exchange reserves, support economic stability, and build a resilient economy with diversified sources of growth. Furthermore, efforts should be directed toward eradicating extreme poverty, ensuring a fairer distribution of income and wealth, and reducing reliance on debt.
Projections for real GDP growth from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are expected to reach around 4.5% in FY2025/2026, driven by the performance of non-oil sectors, including manufacturing, tourism, information and communications technology, agriculture, and construction. This growth is supported by Egypt’s recent credit rating upgrade from B- to B, reflecting renewed global confidence in the country’s economic trajectory and policy direction, as well as improved reserves. The focus should be on sectors with further potential to tap, such as tourism, a perennial pillar of the economy projected to reach 20 million tourists in 2026; information and communications technology, which has a market value of $3.5 billion, has been growing by an average of 15% annually, and contributes north of 5.8% to GDP; and building on other prospects, including the Suez Canal Economic Zone, while accelerating support for the innovative, entrepreneurial and tech-driven startup ecosystem. In addition, one of the most dynamic opportunities lies in the green energy transition, where Egypt’s vast solar and wind resources position it as a potential hub for green hydrogen production. Egypt is also developing plans to resume trade through the Suez Canal, a vital artery of global trade, an engine of economic development, and a primary source of foreign currency. However, its reliability and outlook remain cautiously optimistic, depending on regional geopolitical stability.
The economic outlook for Egypt in 2026 is one of guarded promise, defined by an equilibrium between reform and direction. The country has the strategic vision and international partnerships needed to foster stability and growth. However, this positive outcome hinges on rigorous policy discipline, addressing high unemployment, navigating an uncertain global landscape and rising geopolitical instability, managing external shocks, and mitigating deep-seated structural inefficiencies. Moreover, greater emphasis is needed on education, lifelong learning, vocational training, and healthcare.
The pace and consistency of reforms and policy direction, coupled with redefining the state’s role from operator to regulator and enabler, capping public investments, and strengthening public-private partnerships, will be the most important determinants of Egypt’s economic story in 2026. Next year could be a critical milestone in Egypt’s journey toward sustainable economic development and is poised to mark a new phase of stable growth and renewed investor confidence. For starters, the collective move from a transactional approach to a more visionary strategic path is essential.
Onsi Sawiris School of Business: A Year of Global Ambition
For Onsi Sawiris School of Business, 2026 will be shaped by a renewed commitment to experiential learning, community engagement, responsible, value‑driven leadership, and future‑ready business education. Building on its legacy of academic excellence and market relevance, the school enters its 79th year with a dynamic, ambitious agenda to elevate its impact across the Middle East and Africa and deepen its engagement with its global community.
At the heart of next year’s focus is the continued implementation of the school’s 2025-2028 strategic plan, built around five pillars: digital transformation, impact-driven research, academic excellence, global reach and engagement, and executive education. In addition, the school plans to strengthen its family-business offerings and further integrate sustainability into the curriculum. The school will also welcome the inaugural recipient of the Onsi Sawiris Endowed Professorship in Artificial Intelligence and roll out its Learner Development Program (LDP), designed around the future-ready skills and capacities required in today’s workplace. Among other plans, the school will accelerate its community development initiatives, mentorship programs, and student-focused industry immersion opportunities, and continue cultivating students and learners who combine knowledge, exposure, and future skills with purpose, integrity, and social impact.
Next year is anchored by a series of events, including hosting the Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society, the world’s leading body advancing economic theory, statistics, and mathematical economics, from June 10 to 13. The school will also organize the 4th Responsible Management Education (RME) Week from June 28 to July 1, in collaboration with the Principles for Responsible Management Education (PRME). This event will also feature collaboration with the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB), the European Foundation for Management Development (EFMD Global), the Responsible Research in Business and Management (RRBM) Network, and the African Academy of Management (AFAM). The objective of these events is to amplify the voice of responsible management education in the Global South.
In every dimension, 2026 is a year of acceleration and global ambition—one that further positions the school as a transformative force in business education across the region and as a proud ambassador of Egypt’s influence. 2026 beckons us to be both dreamers and doers. It invites us to apply knowledge with wisdom and technology with humanity. Let us enter this new year not with apprehension but with the confident optimism of those ready to observe, build, learn, and grow together. As we welcome the new year, the interplay of geopolitics and innovative technologies will continue to shape how evolving AI capabilities reshape various aspects of life. It will further demonstrate how advanced technologies create value, lead, and make a difference, and how they help us thrive amid continuous transformation and disruption.
I sincerely wish that next year would be marked by better global alignment, with more peace celebrated across conflict-affected areas around the world. It is the only pathway to a more prosperous world and a peaceful planet.
I wish you and your loved ones Happy Holidays and a healthy, blessed, and joyful New Year.
About the author: Sherif Kamel is a Professor of Management and Dean of the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo.
31 December 2025
Issue #59