For me, it is almost a déjà vu. Just like in December 2020, I feel I am repeating myself when I say that during the next few hours, for the second year running, the world will happily see the end of the year––this time, 2021. Another challenging year marred with mixed hopes and disappointments in combating the pandemic. Just like in 2020, and despite the start of the rollout of the vaccination programs around the world, it was still a difficult year for many societies, businesses, and individuals.
When COVID-19––to a great extent––caught the entire world by surprise like a stealth attack with the first case on November 17, 2019, which was followed by the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring it a pandemic on March 11, 2020, not too many people expected that more than two years later, the world will still be suffering from multiple disruptions in virtually everything we do due to the continuous emergence of different variants including Delta and Omicron.
The question is, where are we headed next? Do we see the light at the end of the tunnel? Should we be optimistic? Other than the pandemic, what will the world focus on in 2022? One thing is for sure; next year will be dominated by a growing need to adjust to the new post-pandemic realities, including adapting to the acceleration of the rate of change in the different aspects of our lives that we should start getting used to because such continuous change––powered by various degrees of digitalization––is here to stay. It is a fact that will become part of the new norm.
As I look at 2022, the following are my views and reactions on what I know, expect, and wish for the world, Egypt, AUC School of Business, and more.
For the world––on the pandemic––as we move deep into the third year of COVID-19 and with more than 4.52 billion people worldwide have already received a dose of the vaccine––which equals about 59 percent of the world population by the end of December 2021. It is expected that in 2022, over 80 percent of the world will have received at least one dose. However, despite the stark discrepancy between the vaccination programs in different countries, I firmly believe that next year will bring better news to the entire global community concerning the fight against the pandemic provided that a faster rollout of the vaccine takes place in both the developed countries and emerging economies. Accordingly, I am cautiously optimistic that we have already seen the worst of this vicious pandemic, and I expect that the world in 2022 will revolve around how different economies, organizations, and individuals will progressively adapt to the new norm as the pandemic’s impact subsides and transitions into an endemic.
However, it is essential to note that no country in the world––especially in the developing world that is more vulnerable and less resourceful––will be able to get out of the pandemic by itself. Thus, for the global rollout of vaccination to accelerate, work efficiently and logistically, the developed world must take the lead and commit to donating billions of vaccine doses to emerging economies, including additional booster doses and the newly produced antiviral pills to be able to fend off and protect against other emerging variant infections through a more dynamic and advanced international coordination scheme where the production of these doses are made in the countries where they are to be distributed. I understand that there are elements related to vaccine patents. However, desperate times call for desperate measures. I am confident that if there is a genuine will, there will be a way to help the world see the light at the end of this pandemic tunnel that continues to disrupt our lives and livelihoods like no other since the second great war––even if that means waiving vaccine patents for a short period. Can that even happen? Is this a possibility? Can politics and profits be put aside for the sake of humanity? Can leading pharmaceutical corporates level up to their social responsibility and become truly effective global citizens? For me, this looks to be just about the only option, so the world becomes COVID-19 free in the foreseeable future. This surely seems to be a far-fetched idea and would require an unlikely change in behavior and maybe a new out-of-the-box attitude under the pretext of vaccine diplomacy, but hey, it is all about realities and wishes for the new year.
On the global economic outlook, according to Reuters, the world’s output is expected to exceed the $100 trillion mark for the first time. In 2022, there is more optimism about the global economy as the rebound journey continues. However, inflation will be closely monitored. The key would be how to deal with it as it is perceived that value chain disruptions will continue to push prices to climb further and faster than incomes, with various implications on different economies.
On the future of work and learning front, both working and learning were among the most disrupted aspects of our lives during the pandemic. With the mixed feelings and reactions to working from anywhere and the effectiveness of remote learning, in 2022, we should expect––given a growing consensus––the emergence of a wide range of innovative technology-based platforms that promote hybrid models that address more cost-efficient operations, adequate organizational settings, accommodate a better work/life balance and revolve around students’ and learners-centered experiences. However, it is worth noting that there is no one-size-fits-all, and reactions will vary. Thus, I expect that, in 2022, whether in academia or at work, we will see a blend of those who will start working regular office hours again and others who will operate in a semi-virtual environment.
Another technology-based disruption that I expect will come big and fast in 2022 is cryptocurrencies which will be watched closely by different market players and interested individuals. It is increasingly attracting more people––with Bitcoin, for example, perceived as a hedge against inflation. Accordingly, it is only a matter of time until regulators, banks, fintechs, and emerging cryptocurrency providers start fiercely competing for the future of finance. Also, electric cars are looking for a significant year following several breakthroughs in 2021. Besides, telehealth and healthtech will spread now that more people worldwide can be reached and served through tech-enabled platforms––as demonstrated around the world during the pandemic. On this note, digital transformation––pending universal infrastructure, access, and affordability––will accelerate in reshaping the world as we know it. I expect we should all be ready to be digital citizens instead of having only the digital natives taking the lead, which primarily reflect the younger and tech-savvy segment of society.
On the sports front, in 2022, the world will witness several firsts in one of the most significant sports events organized every four years––the World Cup. The tournament is taking place for the first time in the fall in the Middle East in Qatar and is dubbed the Desert World Cup. It is scheduled from 21 November to 18 December. As part of the preparation process, Qatar built eight stadiums and a new infrastructure––including the metro system––to host the 64-game comprising the biggest football show on earth. The Lusail Stadium–an 80,000-seat venue–will stage the opening and final games. Interestingly, after the tournament, Lusail will be converted into a community hub of retail space, accommodation, and various service facilities. As for the other stadiums, one will be dismantled and shipped to Africa, while 20,000 seats from each of the remaining six stadiums will be removed and donated to stadiums in the developing world.
For Egypt, the second phase of the structural reform program goes into its second year, aiming to push for sustainable growth, help create job opportunities and improve the economy’s resilience to face external shocks. I sincerely wish that in 2022, the enabling environment becomes more conducive to help unleash the private sector’s potential to achieve greater and more inclusive growth and foster a level playing field between the public and private sectors. Also, in 2022, more digitalized government services will help improve efficiency, reduce bureaucracy and red tape, and combat corruption. These reforms, I wish, should gradually help pave the way to integrate informal enterprises into the formal sector through financial inclusion, introduce better governance, enhance gender diversity for better equality, and break the silos between different government agencies, which could collectively lead to more job opportunities, reduce poverty, leverage development, and improve prosperity. This coming year will be a real test showing how determined the government is to create an enabling and conducive environment and become more transparent about the sectors they will stay active in and which ones they will pull out from.
From an economic perspective, according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund, the economy is on course to become the second-largest Arab and African economy in 2022 with a value of $438 billion reflecting the progress achieved over the last few years. The economy’s growth rate is expected to be around 5.2 percent during 2021/2022. As for the exports of goods and services, the IMF projects the volume to reach $50 billion, and foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to reach $8.6 billion in 2021/2022. On this note, I wish that a more empowered and consequently engaged private sector will open more opportunities and act as a catalyst for FDIs to come Egypt’s way––which will be a further testament to the strength and potential of the economy.
In 2022, Egypt will open the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM)––located around 2 kilometers to the west of the Great Pyramids. It will be the largest museum in the world dedicated to one civilization with a collection of about 100 thousand artifacts and a target of 5 million visitors annually. The museum complex is built on around 117 acres at a cost exceeding $1 billion. In addition, 2022 will mark a century since the discovery of King Tutankhamun’s tomb in 1922. All represent special occasions that will hopefully contribute to furthering the rebound of the tourism sector––one of the primary building blocks of the economy––which, according to the IMF, is expected to reach a revenue level exceeding $8 billion in 2021/2022.
Also, in 2022, Egypt will organize the 27th session of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) during the period 7-18 November in Sharm El-Sheikh, with the theme focused on securing adequate financing and support for the poorer economies to be able to fight the climate crisis. Moreover, it is a significant opportunity for Egypt to work with its international partners to face the various impacts of climate change and help enhance its leading position in Africa in terms of the green transformation and particularly considering the 2050 national climate change strategy while opening the door to a portfolio of opportunities for collaboration and partnerships. In addition, the timing of COP27 bodes well with the government’s plan to grow a greener economy with 30 percent of its projects aimed to be green.
In addition, as Egypt works with its different global partners to strengthen its bilateral and multilateral partnerships, in 2022, both Egypt and the United States will celebrate a century of diplomatic relations. During that time, both countries have enjoyed a strategic partnership based on friendship and mutually rewarding interest in business and economic opportunities through the continuous advancement of their commercial, trade, and investment relationship that corporates and governments have valued on both sides as a step toward creating freer trade and increasing investment flow as well as promoting prosperity, peace, stability, and regional security. Furthermore, as both countries resume their strategic dialogue in 2021, I expect this to be a sign of further economic cooperation between the two countries on different fronts next year.
For AUC School of Business, 2022 will mark 75 years of service to the society in Egypt and the MENA region, offering a diverse portfolio of programs starting back in 1947, with the first department of economics in Egypt offering a Bachelor of Arts in economics. Next year promises to be busy with several new academic degrees and executive education programs offered for the first time in addition to newly introduced research projects and community development activities.
Also, in 2022, in collaboration with the Global Alliance in Management Education (CEMS), the AUC School of Business will jointly organize the annual events, including the CEMS graduation ceremony for the first time in Africa. The ceremony––which is expected to be attended by close to 1,500 participants––is planned to take place by the Pyramids during the 4th quarter of the year.
On a more personal note, 2022 is a big year for me. It represents a landmark in my deanship tenure. I will complete a decade of serving the AUC School of Business community on and off-campus over two different spells. A true honor and privilege that brings a sense of excitement and a passion for always striving to innovate, serve better and realize a more sustainable and scalable impact. Also, next year, I will have reached the 30-year mark as a proud faculty member of the department of management at this gem institution, enjoying a dynamic and inviting academic environment with its golden triangle of teaching, research, and service that has produced over three-quarters of a century several leaders, entrepreneurs, movers, and shakers as well as change agents across different business and economic sectors in Egypt, MENA and beyond.
After another turbulent year––2021, what I know, expect, and wish for in 2022 is still in many ways a wild guess. However, what is guaranteed is that change will continue to occur in a probably more accelerated way. Therefore, I am excited to welcome the new year with a firm belief that it will bring further normalcy to our lives as we approach the end of the pandemic as a global community. As I say goodbye to 2021, I know that we are all tired from the rollercoaster we have been through for over two years. However, despite all the challenges we faced, so many lessons were learned, and many more opportunities were created that will further guide us as we navigate the future full of optimism, will, and drive to succeed and prosper.
I wish you, your family, and your loved ones a healthy, joyful, and prosperous 2022.
About the author: Sherif Kamel is Professor of Management and Dean of the School of Business at The American University in Cairo.
30 December 2021
Issue #20
A balanced recap, I like it.
Happy New Year Dean Sherif Kamel. Very thoughtful.